Do you feel sticker shock at the gas pump? Think about Iran.


The price of a gallon of gasoline jumped $ 1 a year ago. the national average is now just over three dollars.

And if you have long delayed vacation plans, what should you watch out for? Vaccinations, variants, economic recovery, of course. But also, distant Iran.

The Iranians have just elected an ultra-conservative president who criticizes the West, which could block the return of long-awaited Iranian crude oil to the world market.

As the Iranian elections approach last week, talks between the Tehran government and Joe Biden’s administration were heading towards a deal to iron out their differences, revive the nuclear deal and allow Iran to export to new oil.

But newly elected president Ebrahim Raisi and his allies “are very skeptical of US intentions,” said Sara Vakhchouri, who heads the consultancy firm SVB Energy International.

Since Friday’s election, the price of crude has risen by $ 3 to about $ 75 a barrel.

“Traders have lower expectations for Iranian oil,” Vakhshouri said.

Meanwhile, Russia and members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are keeping supplies tight as international demand soars.

Consumer mobility is rebounding as the global economy reopens, said Christopher Page, analyst at Rystad Energy.

Drive, fly and start going back to the office, ”Page said. “This combination will lead to a fairly robust recovery in the United States and Europe and other markets around the world.”

Now, when it comes to the oil market, there is still debate. Some believe Iran – in particular, the country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – still wants a deal, said Helima croft at RBC Capital Markets.

“I think he is in desperate need of sanctions relief. I mean, these are very, very harsh sanctions, after the United States pulled out of the [nuclear] agreement in 2018 under the Trump administration, ”she said.

Iranian oil return to the world – and when – is a “wild card” in energy markets, says Tom kloza to the Oil Price Information Service.

But as far as he can tell, the price of crude will continue to rise, as will other commodities including copper and grains.

“It seems increasingly likely that the third quarter of this year will see a dramatic appreciation in crude oil prices,” Kloza said.

He believes that this fall, drivers could pay the highest gas prices in nine years.

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