Iran Crisis Update, October 5



October 5, 3:00 p.m.

Iran crisis updates are produced by the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP) with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

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Anti-regime protests apparently diminished in scale and size on October 5. October 5 marks the death of a prominent Shiite imam and is a national holiday in Iran, which may explain the decrease in protest activity in Iranian high schools. The regime’s current internet and telecommunications restrictions likely limit the open source information available on anti-regime protests.

Key points to remember

  • Anti-regime demonstrations may have taken place in at least four cities in four provinces, a significant decrease from protest activity the day before.
  • The anti-regime newspaper Iran International reported that Iran was using orbit jamming to block the network’s satellite signal to Iran.
  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) carried out an artillery strike on Sidekan in Iraqi Kurdistan for the tenth consecutive day.

Succession of Paramount Leader

There was nothing significant to report today.

Anti-regime demonstrations

Anti-regime demonstrations may have taken place in four cities in four provinces on October 5. The regime’s ongoing internet and telecommunications censorship has severely limited the open source information available on protest activities. The CTP assesses with low to moderate confidence that protests took place at the following locations:

  • Khorasgan, Isfahan province
  • Alborz, province of Karaj
  • City of Qom, Province of Qom
  • Tehran City, Tehran Province

Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on October 4 that the regime could not ignore its people, referring to the protests.[1] Zarif’s more sympathetic rhetoric departs from the hard line other senior political and security officials have taken in the face of the protests. Zarif served under moderate former President Hassan Rouhani.

The anti-regime newspaper Iran International reported on October 4 that the regime had started using orbit jamming to block the network’s satellite signal to Iran in recent days.[2] Iran International accused Iran of violating international law and said it would pursue the matter legally.

Axis of resistance and regional developments

The IRGC attacked positions of anti-regime Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan for the tenth consecutive day.[3] The IRGC shelled positions near Sidekan, Soran district, Erbil province. The IRGC has focused its attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan exclusively around Sidekan since October 1.


[1] http://www.entekhab dot ir/fa/news/697475

[2] https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1577388204872896523

[3] https://www dot kurdistan24 dot net/en/story/29645-Iranian-artillery-shelling-of-Kurdistan-Region-continues-for-12-consecutive-days

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