Israel’s ability to attack Iran is vital for other reasons than you know

Over the past decade, Iran has been the source of 80% of Israel’s security problems.

Besides the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah, which is under Iranian control, there are at least four other Iran-backed threats that Israel faces.

The first is Iran’s attempt to establish a Hezbollah-like military force in Syria; the second is its attempts to carry out cyber attacks against Israeli targets; the third is its ability to strike the Jewish state with cruise missiles and armed drones that could come from Syria, Iraq and Yemen; and the fourth – and greatest – threat is the possibility of producing nuclear weapons in the near future.

Ten years ago, Israel achieved the capacity to carry out an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believed at the time that an Israeli attack was possible and even necessary. Netanyahu surmised that if Iran attacked Israel in return, US forces would join the battle.

For various reasons, Israel ultimately avoided launching such a strike, and the plan to attack Iran was completely frozen in 2013. Moreover, once the world powers signed a nuclear deal with Iran in 2015, it became clear that an Israeli attack is inconceivable. .

Fast forward to 2021 – the nuclear deal is dead in the water and despite the proposal from both sides to join the treaty, the rift between the United States and Iran seems insurmountable.

Iran insists on three things as conditions for returning to the 2015 agreement: the unconditional lifting of all US sanctions; all technology and uranium obtained so far by the Islamic Republic will remain in their possession; and third, even though the deal was frozen a few years ago, Iran wants that time to be counted as if it adheres to the obligations of the agreement (in other words, if it agrees to maintain some restrictions for five years, those five technically passed, even though the nuclear deal stuck on ice).

US President Joe Biden and his administration tend to compromise on many issues, but in this case it seems they are unwilling to submit to Iran’s harsh demands. In my opinion, the chances that there will be no new agreement at all are greater than the chances that these differences will be resolved.

This takes us back to 2011, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran had conducted experiments aimed at developing a nuclear weapon. But in 2021, that’s not the only threat Iran is capable of producing, and it requires Israel to be prepared for at least two scenarios for an open and direct military conflict with Iran.

The first scenario is a direct attack on Israel with cruise missiles and armed drones operated by Iran or militias under its authority. This kind of attack was carried out two years ago against the Saudi oil infrastructure, which crippled it, but not for long. And even if Israel has better defensive capabilities than Saudi Arabia, such an attack by Iran would likely require Israeli retaliation on Iranian soil.

The second scenario involves Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities if the Iranian regime violates the nuclear deal, is brought back to life, or simply begins to accelerate towards a nuclear bomb.

The importance of the ability to carry out such an operation is great in order to show the international community that the threat of an Israeli strike is real. As a result, they could do more to reach an agreement that will ensure Israel’s security, or toughen sanctions against the Islamic Republic or even prepare their own military options.

One of the reasons Iran allows itself to be so brazen with the United States is the bitter fact that Washington has yet to prove that it also has a credible military option.

The chances of a direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran, or even between Israel and Hezbollah, are still slim. But Israel has no choice but to improve both its defense and attack capabilities, including its cyber units.

Paralysis of Iranian gas stations earlier this week may indicate that Israel is not neglecting this vital area of ​​operations.

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